Make it an evolution, or you’ll have a revolution

The Blue Tsunami: Panic drove voters to the polls in record numbers for a midterm. Here’s why it happened.

Make it an evolution or you’ll have a revolution.

This is a Power Principle and chapter title in my book How Power Moves because it is one of the most timeless leadership truths. The elections this week illustrated this clearly. Tuesday, voters issued a revolution to what they saw coming out of Washington.

This newsletter is about unpacking the skills of connection, influence and leading change, and there is no bigger illustration of this than in an election. Here’s a factual analysis of what happened and why it happened.

Listen to how Republican leaders themselves are describing this blue tsunami:

“This was a rejection of Republicans in Washington.” Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who also called it “close to an extinction-level event” for the party in many parts of the country (WUSF, Tag24)

“It was not simply a blue wave; it was a blue tsunami.” Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), who called the night “a Watergate-level repudiation” and admitted, “Texas is blue” (Fox News, Mediaite)

“The reason we lost is the war.” Vice President JD Vance, on X, adding that voters wanted an end to the war and a focus on the cost of living (NZ Herald, Center Square)

The common agreement: Washington was not listening.

This was more than a messaging problem, as we’ve heard after other elections. It was a referendum on what has actually happened.

What happened

Democrats won the House, the Senate and a majority of governorships, and Republicans flipped almost nothing in return.

The House. Democrats passed the 218 seats needed for a majority on election night. As of Thursday morning, NBC News projects about 258 Democratic seats, the most since 1993 (NBC News). Hakeem Jeffries is in line to become Speaker, and Mike Johnson won’t run for minority leader (CNBC).

The Senate. Democrats flipped seven seats: Kansas, Iowa, Texas, Ohio, Maine, North Carolina and South Carolina (Northeastern). That gives them 54 seats to 44, with Mississippi and Alaska still counting. In Texas, James Talarico beat Ken Paxton. In Maine, Susan Collins’s nearly 30-year tenure ended.

The Governors. Republicans entered with a 26–24 edge. Democrats flipped Georgia, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio and Texas and held every competitive seat they were defending, giving them a majority of governorships for the first time in 16 years. Keisha Lance Bottoms (Georgia) becomes the first Black woman elected governor, Marsha Blackburn and Amy Acton are the first women governors of Tennessee and Ohio, and Gina Hinojosa unseated three-term Gov. Greg Abbott.

State legislatures: the wave reached the statehouses too

In many wave years, the statehouses barely move. Not this time. Of the 88 chambers on the ballot, Democrats flipped 13 and Republicans flipped none. Alaska stays under a bipartisan coalition rather than a straight party flip, and a few individual races are still being counted (MultiState, NCSL).

Democrats also broke the GOP supermajority in Florida. Republicans had controlled most state legislatures since 2010; that run appears to be over.

Why this matters for influence: statehouses draw the congressional maps. The people elected Tuesday will shape the districts for the next decade of races.

Why this happened: Trying to “eject” on a plane perceived to be going down

When many voters pressed the button to vote for a party they did not vote for two years ago, this was an attempt to eject leaders from a plane that is perceived to be going down. For generations, the Republican Party has been the party of safety and security: a strong defense, safe streets, protected families. This cycle, several key signals told voters that wasn’t the case. A war with no clear end and talk of a draft. Executions planned to be streamed where children could watch. Cleaning up our produce and protecting children from toxins. Data centers going up next to homes and schools, and powerful people in the Epstein files facing no consequences. When the party of safety and family values makes abrupt sweeping changes in multiple directions, voters panic.

History: the six-year itch and the pendulum

The President’s party usually loses big in the sixth year of a presidency. Reagan lost the Senate in 1986. Bush lost both chambers in 2006. Obama lost the Senate in 2014. This is the sixth year of a Trump presidency.

The party that holds the House, the Senate and the White House at once also tends to get corrected. Clinton lost Congress in 1994, Obama lost the House in 2010.

Data centers

Families are worried about their health, their children, their power bills and the value of their homes. In the NBC exit poll, 56% of voters said AI and data centers were a crucial or major factor in their vote. Of 41 local data center ballot measures, voters sided against the centers in all but one (CNBC).

War, and the fear of a draft

The Iran war began Feb. 28. When the White House was asked about a draft in March, it said the President keeps his options on the table (NewsNation). A draft would require Congress, but parents heard it.

Gas prices and the cost of living

Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz sent oil prices soaring. Senator Cruz summed it up: food, gas, diesel and insurance are all too high (NBC News).

Immigration

Voters wanted a secure border and a humane, lawful process. Executive orders without lasting law left people uneasy on both ends. Even Governor DeSantis asked why the immigration orders were never codified (Wisconsin Right Now).

The Epstein files

This was a much bigger deal than most people realize, and it was never only about the files. About 3.5 million pages have been released, and the Justice Department withheld more than 2 million more (NOTUS).

To women, who are often swing voters, this signals more than paperwork. It signals a massive miscarriage of justice, and the wealthy elite getting a pass. The Justice Department has brought no charges based on the millions of documents it released (Detroit News). Days before the election, it turned down survivors’ request for a special counsel to investigate Epstein’s network (NewsNation).

No indictments. No visible effort to act on what the files revealed. People didn’t just want documents. They wanted action and justice.

When the evil go free, people grieve, and then they vote.

Bringing back public executions

In October, Defense Secretary Hegseth said the Dec. 3 firing-squad execution of the Fort Hood shooter would be livestreamed. The outrage among mother especially that I have heard is huge - this is something our children could easily see online. Even Republicans pushed back, and the Catholic Church and some survivors of the attack raised concerns.

MAHA: the big reason no one is talking about

Make America Healthy Again was truly purple. Many people who voted for President Trump two years ago did so because their kids are getting sick, they are tired of the US vaccine schedule being so much larger than other nations, and they don’t trust Big Ag because of the chemicals in America’s food. Moms and dads across the aisle united behind wanting our kids healthy again. It has been fractured, to put it mildly. Of at least 21 congressional campaigns backed by the two leading MAHA PACs, only five had won as of Wednesday, and no MAHA-endorsed statewide candidate won (Bloomberg Law).

There have been incredible divisions and upset within MAHA over picks for key roles. Casey Means, a MAHA celebrity, was nominated for Surgeon General, but her nomination stalled in the Senate amid questions about her credentials, vaccines and her refusal to say where she stands on the abortion pill. The President withdrew it in April.

Then in June, the Supreme Court ruled 7–2 that federal law blocks state failure-to-warn lawsuits against Roundup’s maker, effectively shielding glyphosate from many cancer claims. The administration’s own Solicitor General sided with Monsanto, and the President had already signed an order to boost glyphosate production. For many MAHA leaders including Turning Point USA podcaster Alex Clark, that felt like betrayal (The Hill).

Treating infidelity and abuse as irrelevant to leadership

The sexual abuse of women and children as well as marital infidelity are too often treated as no big deal frankly by both sides, but it hits Republicans harder as the party who campaigns on family, faith and values.

I personally heard from conservative Republican women who stayed home because of this. More than 1 in 3 women in this nation has experienced violence by an intimate partner. How many people have lived through betrayal trauma within a marriage? Add sons in jeopardy of a draft, executions our children could watch online, and the Epstein files as a miscarriage of justice and letting the elite go free. For many people, there was panic at the polls, and this was the result.

I would love to hear from you.

Why do you think this blue tsunami happened?

To your success,

Anne

Anne Basham

CEO of Ascend Consulting DC

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